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PostPosted: 12/29/10 4:09 am • # 1 
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Interesting commentary ~ personally, I don't see any of today's alleged R 'frontrunners' [Palin, Romney, Huckabee] as winning a national election ~ time will tell ~ Sooz

MAYBE SHE SHOULDN'T HAVE QUIT AFTER HALF A TERM.... There's ample evidence to show that Sarah Palin is not a well-liked political figure nationwide. It's slightly more interesting, though, to see how unpopular she is in her home state.

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In Alaska just 33% of voters have a favorable opinion of her to 58% with a negative one. The only place where fewer voters see her positively than her own home state is dark blue Massachusetts.

Democrats hate Palin in Alaska but they hate her everywhere so there's nothing newsworthy about that. What makes her home state numbers unusually bad is that Republicans see her favorably by only a 60/30 margin. In most places she's closer to 80% favorability within her own party. Also while independents don't like her anywhere their level of animosity in Alaska is unusually large -- 65% unfavorable to only 25% with a favorable opinion.

Some of this, of course, is the result of Palin being a national embarrassment, which makes her unpopular everywhere. But Dave Weigel notes why Alaskans' attitudes are of particular interest.

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I visited Alaska in July, and spent half a day in Wasilla, where one used book store put Going Rogue in the Alaska Fiction section. There are simple psychological reasons for all of this. People come to Alaska to strike out and get rich -- in gold, on the oil pipeline, on fishing boats. But Alaskans don't bail on the state to get rich elsewhere, and that's obviously what Palin did in July 2009. She kept her home base in the state while making money as a political pundit Outside.

As she did this, Alaskans visiting other states, who were once asked about bears or Deadliest Catch, were asked some variation of the question "ooh, ooh, can you see Russia from your house?" So this is a very specific, provincial kind of popularity plunge.

This, by the way, comes on the heels of another survey from Public Policy Polling that asked Alaska Republicans who they favored for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination. Palin was third in the poll, with a measly 15%.

In the context of the presidential campaign, I continue to think this matters. Some political figures weighing national bids enjoy considerable support from those who presumably know them best -- their home state's voters. But as Republicans get set to announce, we see a field in which several prominent candidates -- Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney -- have effectively been told by their former constituents, "Don't bother."

—[url=mailto:sbenen@washingtonmonthly.com]Steve Benen[/url] 9:30 AM December 29, 2010

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archiv ... 027293.php


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PostPosted: 12/29/10 4:52 am • # 2 
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She quit as soon as there was a hint of opposition and questions were being asked.


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PostPosted: 12/29/10 5:59 am • # 3 
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i pray fervently that she wins the GOP nomination for president, and gets her ass handed to her by Obama. even that crushing defeat would not shut her up, but it would end the discussion.


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PostPosted: 12/29/10 7:31 am • # 4 
She's going to play the "Will she? Won't she?" game until she's extracted every wooden nickel from all her worshippers - and then probably not run, but head off into retirement laughing all the way to the bank. She's not stupid... her flock is.


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PostPosted: 12/29/10 9:56 am • # 5 
I'm not so sure that I would dismiss Palin's chances. The American electorate isn't known for it's ability to spot self serving fools.


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PostPosted: 12/29/10 2:02 pm • # 6 
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Thack wrote:
I'm not so sure that I would dismiss Palin's chances. The American electorate isn't known for it's ability to spot self serving fools.

thack- i don't expect even a strong GOP candidate to win in 2012.  but you may feel free to rub that in my face, later.
Palin has MANY flaws.  her worst one is that she doesn't coach well.  in her case, that will be fatal.  i will bank on it.
she won't even survive the primary.  but she might win Iowa, if she runs.


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PostPosted: 12/29/10 9:52 pm • # 7 
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macroscopic wrote:
Thack wrote:
I'm not so sure that I would dismiss Palin's chances. The American electorate isn't known for it's ability to spot self serving fools.

thack- i don't expect even a strong GOP candidate to win in 2012.  but you may feel free to rub that in my face, later.
Palin has MANY flaws.  her worst one is that she doesn't coach well.  in her case, that will be fatal.  i will bank on it.
she won't even survive the primary.  but she might win Iowa, if she runs.
I would worry more about her VP choice then I would about her.  After all, based on past experience, if she wins the presidency, she'll just quit halfway through her term (when she loses interest or the going gets tough or some questions start to arise about her actions) and the VP will take over.


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PostPosted: 12/30/10 3:29 am • # 8 
VP John McCain...


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PostPosted: 12/30/10 5:49 am • # 9 
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Image




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PostPosted: 12/30/10 6:31 am • # 10 
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Sidartha wrote:
VP John McCain...
Oh great!  Then the U.S. would be just a heartbeat away from John Boehner, the waffle king.

Just out of curiousity.  Presidential succession is spelled out but what about Vice-President.  If the scenario being joked about here were to occur - Palin quits, McCain becomes President - would Boehner automaticlly become Vice-President?

  


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PostPosted: 12/30/10 6:45 am • # 11 
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jimwilliam wrote:
Just out of curiousity.  Presidential succession is spelled out but what about Vice-President.  If the scenario being joked about here were to occur - Palin quits, McCain becomes President - would Boehner automaticlly become Vice-President?
  

I wanted to double-check before I responded and, somewhat surprisingly to me, I am correct ~ Image ~ emphasis/bolding below is mine ~ Sooz

From wiki [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_line_of_succession]:

"The 25th Amendment, ratified in 1967, clarified Article II, Section 1: that the Vice President is the direct successor of the President. He or she becomes President if the President dies, resigns or is removed from office. The 25th also provides for the situation where the President is temporarily disabled, such as if the President has a surgical procedure or becomes mentally unstable. It also required vice presidential vacancies to be filled by the President and confirmed by Congress. Previously, when a vice president had succeeded to the presidency or otherwise left the office empty (through death, resignation, or removal from office), the vice presidency remained vacant until the next presidential election."


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PostPosted: 12/30/10 11:13 am • # 12 
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sooz08 wrote:
jimwilliam wrote:
Just out of curiousity.  Presidential succession is spelled out but what about Vice-President.  If the scenario being joked about here were to occur - Palin quits, McCain becomes President - would Boehner automaticlly become Vice-President?
  

I wanted to double-check before I responded and, somewhat surprisingly to me, I am correct ~ Image ~ emphasis/bolding below is mine ~ Sooz

From wiki [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_line_of_succession]:

"The 25th Amendment, ratified in 1967, clarified Article II, Section 1: that the Vice President is the direct successor of the President. He or she becomes President if the President dies, resigns or is removed from office. The 25th also provides for the situation where the President is temporarily disabled, such as if the President has a surgical procedure or becomes mentally unstable. It also required vice presidential vacancies to be filled by the President and confirmed by Congress. Previously, when a vice president had succeeded to the presidency or otherwise left the office empty (through death, resignation, or removal from office), the vice presidency remained vacant until the next presidential election."
That doesn't say anything about what happens if both the prez and VP are out of commission.  We could have a military coup and install a dictator - that would be fun. 


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PostPosted: 12/30/10 11:27 am • # 13 
macroscopic wrote:
Thack wrote:
I'm not so sure that I would dismiss Palin's chances. The American electorate isn't known for it's ability to spot self serving fools.

thack- i don't expect even a strong GOP candidate to win in 2012.  but you may feel free to rub that in my face, later.
Palin has MANY flaws.  her worst one is that she doesn't coach well.  in her case, that will be fatal.  i will bank on it.
she won't even survive the primary.  but she might win Iowa, if she runs.
2012 is a long way off. You will always lose money if you bet on the political acumen of the American electorate.


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PostPosted: 12/30/10 12:13 pm • # 14 
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Thack wrote:
macroscopic wrote:
Thack wrote:
I'm not so sure that I would dismiss Palin's chances. The American electorate isn't known for it's ability to spot self serving fools.

thack- i don't expect even a strong GOP candidate to win in 2012.  but you may feel free to rub that in my face, later.
Palin has MANY flaws.  her worst one is that she doesn't coach well.  in her case, that will be fatal.  i will bank on it.
she won't even survive the primary.  but she might win Iowa, if she runs.
2012 is a long way off. You will always lose money if you bet on the political acumen of the American electorate.

you can place your bets however you like.  personally, i enjoy the speculation, even when i am wrong.


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