That's a tall order.

Not really. None of those states are leaning decisively towards Obama. They are all too close to call.

USA Today - Sunday, November 4, 2012

Obama-Romney: Too close to call

9:23AM EST November 4. 2012 - Only two days left -- and, no, no one knows what's going to happen.

President Obama and Mitt Romney are scrambling for last minute votes on Sunday and Monday in what could turn out to be a historically close presidential election -- maybe not a rerun of the 2000 George-W.-Bush-Al Gore battle, but very close nonetheless.

How close, you ask?

The average of polls compiled by the Real Clear Politics website gives Obama a lead of 0.2 percent in the popular vote -- 47.4% to 47.2^%. That would leave 5.4% undecided.

In terms of the Electoral College -- which will decide the race -- Real Clear Politics now lists 11 states as toss-ups, totaling 146 electoral votes.

Among presumably solid states, Obama leads Romney by only 201 electoral votes to 191, according to RCP -- it takes 270 to win the White House.

rcp is notoriously conservative in allotting states. try huffington post or electoral-vote.com

it is not that close.

here is why: there are only (3) states that are within 2%: Florida, Virgina and Colorado. between them is 51 votes. Romney only has 206 locked up. that means that unless he gets a 2% swing in some OTHER state, he falls 13EV short of winning.

Huffington Post leans to the left. If we want an accurate assessment of what is really going on, using a site that leans to the left is just as bad as using a site that leans to the right.

I want to know what is really going on -- and not some site telling me what I want to hear.

Nate Silver, 538 blog in the NYT ~ the gold standard of polls interpretation ~

Sooz

i think 538 is the best site out there for polling. but i doubt you will believe anything other than what you are hearing, at this point. but mark my words. it is not that close. Obama is going to win by at least 50 EV, and by about the same amount of the popular vote that Bush won by in 2004.

ALL of the national polls are showing Obama leading or tied, now. this is a significant drift from 3 weeks ago when MOST of them had Romney ahead.

Agreed, Mac.
IMO, one needs to look at trends rather than individual polls, regardless of the way the "lean".
I also think that Sandy has helped Obama and harmed Romney. Obama appears to be actively "doing something" while Romney appears to be "doing nothing other than bashing Obama" on the campaign trail. Big mistake. He should have said, "What can I do to help?" instead. IMO, that approach would have gotten him elected.
I don't know if the Obama campaign took advantage of the situation but the should have if they didn't.

281-257
I think there is a change Obama can take VA, but I gave it to R just so I don't get too disappointed.

O gets OH, NV and NH
R gets CO, VA, FL and NC

Rush Limbaugh called it for Romney with 300+ EV.
A serious + to boot. It's all over for Obama.

I'm sticking with Nate Silver's current forecast:

Obama: 307.2 EVs, 86.3% chance of winning, 50.6% popular vote
Romney: 230.8 EVs, 13.7% chance of winning, 48.5% popular vote

Sooz

One can't get 307.2 EVs!

Swing state predictions?

Nor can you have 1.8 children/family, yet that was the average.

MP, I can't explain it ~ but Nate Silver is the polls' wunderkid ~ click on the "538" link in my #81 post above ~ his accuracy was something astounding like 98% in the 2008 elections ~

Sooz

Mathematical probabilities don't necessarily work out in nice, whole numbers.
His are strictly mathematical models, as far as I've been able to determine.

I know, I am teasing you (I posted him pages back). He takes an average, I just wanted you to actually pick states, put them in a column and see what you get.

Right. I know. I went out on a limb and went through all the states.

Maybe in the morning, MP ~ obviously, I'm NOT competent tonight ~ ~ LOL!

Sooz


Edited to add the word "NOT" above ~ forgetting it when I posted proves today's incompetency ~

Some pretty cool tweets from Nate tonight

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight
Obama gained an average of 1.5 points between 12 national polls published today. Big sample sizes. That's a pretty big deal.

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight
There's been a pretty clear shift toward Obama in national polls. Based on most recent data, he may lead by 2-3% in popular vote.

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight
A few more polls to add. But Obama at 91% to win Electoral College based on today's data so far. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com

I think Obama is going to win. If I were in Vegas, that's where I'd lay my bets. But by the same token (puns always intended), I also think that it's within the realm of possibility that Romney might pull it off.

Romney is going to be looking for a new pair of magic underwear.

It seems to me it is so close that the party that can get it's supporters out and through the various lines of poll watchers is the one that will win.

Cheatin' underwear.

Elizabeth Warren declared winner.