i know the prevailing wisdom is that the GOP can't possibly lose the house in 2014. i thought so, too. but i was wrong. they really could. and the reason is this:

the way that the GOP rode to victory in 2010/2012 was to gerrymander districts so that most democrats were in the smallest number of districts. in other words, they ran a computer program to determine how FEW districts would get the majority of democratic voters (see "project red state").

the problem with that model is that it makes all of the surrounding districts to the gerrymandered democratic districts MORE VULNERABLE. i know it sound counterintuitive, so read this:

http://election.princeton.edu/wp-conten ... ct2013.png

what this guy points out is that the budget showdown has changed the game. the GOP won their districts by an average of 13% in 2012, but they are down 20% in the polls. his predictive model shows that the GOP will gain back 5% of that by 2014 election time, so we get 20-5 = 15% -vs- 13% win = about a 50/50 chance that the GOP will LOSE THE HOUSE.

am i saying that will happen? no.
am i saying it is LIKELY. no.
am i saying it is POSSIBLE. yes. yes i am.

That's ENORMOUSLY encouraging to me ~ especially if we factor in the possibility/probability of the GOP/TPers trying this sabotage again in just a few months and the possibility/probability of the GOP/TPers intentionally playing games with the budget process, immigration reform, etc ~ also, I read somewhere in the last few days that the GOP/TPer surly behavior has turned off the $$$ faucet from business and some PACs but has worked the opposite for Dems ... money is flowing into Dem coffers ~

Sooz

They'll find another way to cheat the system, be it legally or otherwise.

i know this probably sounds terribly naiive, oskar, but i honestly think that it will reach a tipping point where money can't do it anymore. at that point, the party will split, and there will be a radical faction that runs as something other than Republican, and then the old GOP. then we will have a 3 party system for a while, while everything works out.

the only other way it might go is for the TP to be co-opted.

This could/will have an enormous influence IF it holds true ~ and at this moment, business "angst" seems to be supporting Dem candidates with mega $$$ ~ Sooz

Business Goes To War Against The Tea Party It Helped Finance
Author: Deborah Montesano October 19, 2013 8:56 pm

When Tea Party Republicans were ready to let the nation default on its debts, business groups went into shock. After all, it was THEIR interests that were suddenly threatened by Congressmen whom they helped fund. Economic collapse at a worldwide level was the expected outcome of a default. Yet the American Banking Association and groups like it had given thousands of dollars to the campaigns of Sen. Ted Cruz and his cronies.

Business interests look for a strategy against the Tea Party.

Now that default has been avoided, business interests are trying to shake the cobwebs out of their collective heads. They’re not just getting angry; they’re ready to wage a war. Monied interests are looking for a winning strategy to get the Republican Party back from the monster they created.

According to Bloomberg News, Scott Reed, political strategist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said, “We are going to get engaged.” They need to “elect people who understand the free market and not silliness.” The Chamber was a huge donor in 2012 to candidates it now sees as embracing ‘silliness’.

Big business thinks its best strategy is to act like, well, the Tea Party. That means becoming grassroots activists. According to Alex Roarty of the National Journal, more “moderate” local business leaders need to “run for office themselves.” Business interests must urge this to happen, without seeming like part of a nationally devised plot.

The Tea Party targets other Republicans.

The Tea Party doesn’t seem to care about the affections of the business community. They’re on a holy mission. In the 2014 election, they’re targeting Republican incumbents who voted to end the fiscal standoff by funding the government and raising the debt ceiling. By targeting old hands like Sen. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee and Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky in the primaries, they expect easy Tea Party wins over Democrats in next year’s general election.

David French is a lobbyist for the National Retail Federation. He questions the Tea Party strategy. In his opinion, targeting other Republicans will mean “more Senate minorities in the future”. He added, “I question the judgment there”.

Meanwhile, Democrats are enjoying the sight from the sidelines. Their candidates are picking up steam. Southern Democrats made a strong showing in third-quarter fundraising. They out-raised their Republican counterparts in almost every case. Confidence is rising that the Tea Party will do the dirty work of discrediting their fellow Republicans in the primaries. Democrats will then have an easier time of winning the election come next November.

To all appearances, the Tea Party’s ‘suicide caucus’ and the more moderate ‘surrender caucus’ will spend the entire next year fighting it out for control of their party. With the business lobby spurring the conflict on, it’s anyone’s guess whether any part of the GOP will still be standing by the end of 2014.

http://www.addictinginfo.org/2013/10/19/business-goes-war-tea-party/

So the corporatists tried to take over the US using the back door and got "Saddamed".
Now they want to try forcing the front door?
NEVER vote for people like this or their representatives.