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 Post subject: Re: Coronavirus
PostPosted: 03/02/20 6:22 pm • # 26 
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there is a dashboard at Johns Hopkins.
there have been 4000 new cases in the last 24 hours.


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PostPosted: 03/02/20 8:13 pm • # 27 
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The map is here (it's zoomable) and shows reported cases, deaths, and recovered - it's updated daily


https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6


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PostPosted: 03/03/20 6:31 am • # 28 
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As if things weren't worrisome enough ...

New Coronavirus May Circulate Forever as a Seasonal, Endemic Pathogen, Experts Fear

AYLIN WOODWARD

The new coronavirus is likely here to stay.

Experts think will probably become a permanent part of the human respiratory-virus repertoire.

"This is going to be with us for some time – it's endemic in human populations and not going to go away without a vaccine," Amesh Adalja, an infectious-disease expert at the Johns Hopkins Centre for Health Security, told Business Insider.

The virus causes a disease called COVID-19 that's marked by fevers, coughing, and occasionally severe lung infections. At least 2,800 people have died and more than 82,500 have gotten sick, mostly in China. (For the latest numbers, see Business Insider's live updates here.)

Chinese president Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump have both expressed optimism about impending springtime weather, since the warmth could stymie the virus' spread in a similar way to the seasonal flu.

That may be the case, Adalja said: "It may decrease in transmission frequency so that you'll be able to have time to get a vaccine scaled up by the next appearance of it."

But it doesn't mean the coronavirus would go away for good.

Even if the coronavirus becomes seasonal, it's not going anywhere

If the coronavirus winds up fluctuating with the seasons like the flu, it could retreat in summer and return in the fall and winter each year.

"We know respiratory viruses are very seasonal, but not exclusively," William Schaffner, an infectious-disease specialist at Vanderbilt University, told CNN.

"One would hope that the gradual spring will help this virus recede. We can't be sure of that."

Respiratory viruses are seasonal because cooler temperatures help harden a protective gel-like coating that surrounds the virus particles while they're in the air. A stronger shell allows them to survive long enough in the air to travel from one person to the next.

The flu virus "survives better in cool, dry temperatures," Amanda Simanek, an epidemiologist at the University of Wisconsin at Milwaukee, told Insider.

But of course, the northern and southern hemispheres don't experience the same seasons at the same time. So once China and the US see warmer weather, countries in South America and Oceania will be entering winter.

Plus, some countries don't experience dramatic seasonal changes at all, so "the flu circulates there year round," Adalja said.

Another virus that circulates in the community

Four other human coronaviruses are already endemic in the global population. They're all seasonal, and they typically cause mild common colds, though each can cause pneumonia.

According to Adalja, the new coronavirus may very well be endemic now, too – a member of the club of "community-acquired" constantly circulating coronaviruses.

On Wednesday, the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported the first possible case of coronavirus "community spread" in the US. The patient is at a hospital in Sacramento, California.

That means the new coronavirus is spreading from person to person in the US, Adalja said, rather than just among people who were recently in China.

"It's something established in the community," he said.

Adalja added that some public-health experts already suspected that some US coronavirus cases were being missed because of their similarity to other seasonal illnesses.

"Likely community spread of mild cases was happening in many countries around the world, mixed in with cold and flu season cases," he said.

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 Post subject: Re: Coronavirus
PostPosted: 03/03/20 6:44 am • # 29 
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Trump demands pharma come up with a vaccine for coronavirus — but he’s been spreading vaccine conspiracies for years

President Donald Trump met with pharmaceutical companies where he told them he “heard” that a vaccine could be ready in a matter of months. He was swiftly told that it wasn’t how it works.

snip ...

“Like I’ve been telling you, a year to a year and a half,” Dr. Anthony Fauci had to interrupt Trump as he was speaking to the press.

It was likely an awkward conversation as the executives of the companies are faced with Trump’s ignorance over science.

It’s a curious conflict for the president because for the past eight years, he’s been sounding the alarm about vaccines being dangerous.

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 Post subject: Re: Coronavirus
PostPosted: 03/03/20 9:11 am • # 30 
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Do you think he'll lose his base of anti-vaxxers or will they all become believers in fear of the Corona?


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 Post subject: Re: Coronavirus
PostPosted: 03/03/20 11:13 am • # 31 
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queenoftheuniverse wrote:
Do you think he'll lose his base of anti-vaxxers or will they all become believers in fear of the Corona?


Become believers because........well this is "different" or some other excuse. If they can excuse him of all his atrocities/words/actions, they can excuse anything.


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 Post subject: Re: Coronavirus
PostPosted: 03/03/20 12:46 pm • # 32 
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queenoftheuniverse wrote:
Do you think he'll lose his base of anti-vaxxers or will they all become believers in fear of the Corona?

Good question. I expect that they'll find some excuse and say that this is an exception to the rule.

As an aside, wandered in to Costco this morning and they're wiping down the handles of all their shopping carts as you go in. (Not that it does any good because I'd pushed the cart that far so, if there was any virus on the handle it was already on my hands and would be redeposited as soon as I pushed the cart.) More notably, they were completely sold out of disinfectant wipes and hand sanitizer. And one of the staff told us that they had actually sold out of water the other day. And for the first time I remember, huge sections of displays are completely empty. Paranoia is setting in.


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 Post subject: Re: Coronavirus
PostPosted: 03/04/20 7:23 am • # 33 
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Trump goes full racist, of course, to cover up coronavirus lies and incompetence
Trump's ignorance and hostility to science makes situation worse — so he turns to an old standby: race-baiting

AMANDA MARCOTTE

Donald Trump's sole interest, when it comes to the coronavirus, is trying to find some way to prevent this impending public health crisis from affecting his re-election chances. His utter lack of concern for the health and safety of Americans, including his own supporters, is unsurprising — after daily exposure to the man for years, we should know by now hat he lacks normal human feelings such as empathy or concern for others. Indeed, the administration's response to the threat of this virus spreading in the U.S. has been focused mainly, if not solely, on propaganda — seeking to create the illusion that things are under control, instead of doing the hard work of actually trying to get things under control.

But thanks to Trump's utter lack of credibility, even the ham-fisted propaganda efforts aren't working. He held a press conference Wednesday that was clearly intended to bamboozle the public just enough to stabilize the stock markets (which Trump thinks hold the key to his re-election). But the whole thing was a disaster, even by propaganda standards, with Trump's dishonesty, hostility to scientific experts and massive incompetence on full display. Rather than stabilizing the markets, his performance seems to have made things worse — the Dow Jones had its biggest one-day plunge in history on Thursday.

Trump reacted in a way that's sadly unsurprising: He amped up his racism, grasping desperately for nonwhite people to blame, rather than admitting he's not up to the task of handling this crisis.

In a series of hyperventilating tweets in the middle of the night, Trump whined that the "Do Nothing Democrats were busy wasting time on the Immigration Hoax" while "I was busy calling early BORDER & FLIGHT closings." Most responsible Americans with day jobs were sleeping, and our president tried to focus on the "BIG NEWS!" that federal money was being cut off to "Sanctuary Cities," a slur conservatives concocted for cities that prioritize public safety over harassing undocumented immigrants.

It's brutally obvious Trump only cares about manipulating public opinion to keep the markets from plummeting, not about saving lives. Rather than putting someone who cares about science and public health in charge of the coronavirus task force, Trump appointed Vice President Mike Pence, a man who has significant contempt for both. (Pence's greatest hits include denying that smoking kills people and that condoms prevent STI transmission, as well as declaring that prayer works better to stop HIV transmission than clean needles.) Pence promptly added Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and crank pseudo-economist Larry Kudlow to the task force.

These appointments make clear that Pence's goal is to convince investors to stop panicking, and not to address the source of the panic, which is a fast-spreading disease that isn't remotely under control. Kudlow, in particular, has been throwing himself into the propaganda mission, and in the process has lied about the virus being "contained" and demonized legitimate health officials who have been warning that Americans need to prepare for a serious epidemic.

Pence has also thrown himself behind the task, common to fascist leaders everywhere, of censorship. The New York Times, always ready to bend over backwards to portray the administration in the best possible light, characterized Pence's plan to require all health officials to clear public statements with him first as "a more disciplined approach to communications."

It's not. It's about censoring people who have what the administration views as market-threatening (though health-preserving) information to share. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, was specifically muzzled, with the Times noting he had "told associates that the White House had instructed him not to say anything else without clearance."

It seems likely that the administration's propaganda-first approach is backfiring, since everyone knows that Trump is a liar and Pence is a sleaze who will openly spread bad health information, if he thinks there's political or financial gain. It's impossible to say for certain, but my guess is that this focus on propaganda over substantial policy has only made the markets more volatile. When the president is an incompetent liar who wouldn't think twice about letting many people get sick, and conceivably die, to boost his chances of re-election, panic is not an unreasonable response.

As much as Pence may wish to muzzle public officials and spin falsehoods, we still have a free press in this country, and new reports are coming out daily chronicling exactly how badly Trump's administration has screwed the pooch.

The mismanagement started even before the word "coronavirus" was a thing. Trump fired the entire pandemic response team in 2018, as part of the administration's war on Obama-era policies, and never bothered to rebuild the team. Trump officials also slashed spending on overseas programs to combat epidemics by 80% two years ago, leading to efforts being abandoned across the globe — including in China, where this outbreak started.

(Conservatives are clinging to an AP "fact check" that denies that Trump cut funding for the CDC, but that fact check is misleading in itself. Overall spending on the CDC may have risen, but the cuts to this specific program are real.)

Now there's a whistleblower at Health and Human Services who says that department employees — most of whom are not medical professionals — were sent to deal with Americans under quarantine at Travis Air Force Base and March Air Reserve Base with no proper training or protective gear. When the workers asked for more help with disease prevention, the New York Times reports, they "were dismissed by senior administration officials as detrimental to staff 'morale.' They were 'admonished,' the complainant said, and 'accused of not being team players,' and had their 'mental health and emotional stability questioned.'"


The first patient believed to have contracted the virus in the U.S. reportedly lived near Travis Air Force Base in the central valley of California, where HHS workers came and went on a daily basis, without following protocols to prevent the virus from spreading outside the quarantine area.

Without even knowing the details, Americans can be perfectly sure of two things: Trump is profoundly dishonest and completely incompetent. So anything the administration says about having this situation under control is going to be read, by most people — including Wall Street investors — as untrustworthy, at best.

This is true even of Trump's supporters, who mostly don't even bother pretending their president is honest, but instead resort to rationalizations about why his lies are OK. That's no doubt why Trump is turning back to Ol' Reliable, i.e., racist demagoguery. He can't convince his followers he's telling the truth about any of this; even they know that's preposterous. But he can remind them why they love their big, orange liar of a leader: Because he dishes out the racist invective they crave. Sadly, many of them care about that more than about whether they or their loved ones or their neighbors are in danger from Trump's lies and incompetence.

SOURCE

Live links at source


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 Post subject: Re: Coronavirus
PostPosted: 03/04/20 8:07 am • # 34 
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NYC ER doctor: I have to 'plead to test people' for coronavirus



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 Post subject: Re: Coronavirus
PostPosted: 03/04/20 9:48 am • # 35 
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The CDC criteria for testing is very narrow, and there are only one million test kits for 350 million people. Another propaganda tool in my opinion- if people are not being tested it looks like there are few confirmed cases, right?


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 Post subject: Re: Coronavirus
PostPosted: 03/04/20 10:19 am • # 36 
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queenoftheuniverse wrote:
The CDC criteria for testing is very narrow, and there are only one million test kits for 350 million people. Another propaganda tool in my opinion- if people are not being tested it looks like there are few confirmed cases, right?


Like any epidemic, this one will run its course.


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PostPosted: 03/04/20 10:58 am • # 37 
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that is rather a glib reply, given the human cost, oskar.


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 Post subject: Re: Coronavirus
PostPosted: 03/04/20 11:42 am • # 38 
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macroscopic wrote:
that is rather a glib reply, given the human cost, oskar.


Doesn't make it untrue. All we can do is try to minimize the damage.


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 Post subject: Re: Coronavirus
PostPosted: 03/04/20 11:57 am • # 39 
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oskar576 wrote:
queenoftheuniverse wrote:
The CDC criteria for testing is very narrow, and there are only one million test kits for 350 million people. Another propaganda tool in my opinion- if people are not being tested it looks like there are few confirmed cases, right?

Like any epidemic, this one will run its course.

Of course it will. After all, the plague ran its course in the Middle Ages. Of course that was only after killing a third of the population of Europe.

Not that anyone thinks the coronavirus will be this deadly - to date it only seems that about 3-4% of those infected actually die (compared to something less than 1% of those with the flu)


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PostPosted: 03/04/20 12:48 pm • # 40 
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shiftless2 wrote:
oskar576 wrote:
queenoftheuniverse wrote:
The CDC criteria for testing is very narrow, and there are only one million test kits for 350 million people. Another propaganda tool in my opinion- if people are not being tested it looks like there are few confirmed cases, right?

Like any epidemic, this one will run its course.

Of course it will. After all, the plague ran its course in the Middle Ages. Of course that was only after killing a third of the population of Europe.

Not that anyone thinks the coronavirus will be this deadly - to date it only seems that about 3-4% of those infected actually die (compared to something less than 1% of those with the flu)


Thanks for those stats shift. I was going to post that. I've read so many times "millions have died from the flu, but only (whatever the number is now) from the coronavirus. It's not that bad", I could scream. No matter how many times you tell them the percentage of deaths is much greater, they don't see it. It seems to be a more deadly virus.


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PostPosted: 03/05/20 1:19 am • # 41 
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Thanks for those stats shift. I was going to post that. I've read so many times "millions have died from the flu, but only (whatever the number is now) from the coronavirus. It's not that bad", I could scream. No matter how many times you tell them the percentage of deaths is much greater, they don't see it. It seems to be a more deadly virus

What's more, now that it's been established you can get the corona virus more than once, everybody's odds of getting a fatal infection just went up.

There's also a line running that it is the aged and those with respiratory problems that are the most vulnerable. That may be so but often when somebody is reported as having died from it, they are the young and healthy. (eg: the doctor in Wuhan province, the Iranian politician, the gentleman in Oregon.)

It seems like the world has gone into full blown panic. Last night at Khane, for example, there was an announcement that talked about the risk continuing to be low but to take precautions like washing your hands steadily, using the hand sanitizers, staying home if you are sick, etc. A very low key approach. Today I get a "What's Ap" from our volunteer Captain saying the usual Friday night tea (in fact, all chai nights) is cancelled until further notice, seniors programs are cancelled and religious school and training is cancelled.

Today a member of our Strata Council come running up as I was going out and asks if we should put some kind of notice on the building door about the corona virus. My response was "saying what? That you can't go into your own home? That residents shouldn't hold a corona virus party like the old chicken pox parties and invite all their infected friends over?

This is too serious a situation for people to be panicking over and having guys like Grabem and Pence flashing all over the place giving false information and trying to find someway of blaming someone for the problem isn't helping. Neither is our boy wonder Prime Minister. His response? He's going to strike a cabinet level committee to study the problem. They'll meet every few months and see what effect it's having on the economy. I am so disgusted with this guy with his handling of the protests and this issue that I could almost vote conservative - not quite, but almost.


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PostPosted: 03/05/20 6:28 am • # 42 
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jimwilliam wrote:
... now that it's been established you can get the corona virus more than once, everybody's odds of getting a fatal infection just went up.

We've seen examples of that and just saw a news report saying that they've identified a second strain of the virus (things like the flu have multiple strains which is why there is no single vaccine and you need a new shot every year)


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PostPosted: 03/05/20 6:53 am • # 43 
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The stupid is strong in this one

Trump has a 'hunch' WHO report of 3.4% coronavirus death rate is false

Stephen Proctor

On Hannity Wednesday night, President Trump discounted the new report from the World Health Organization saying the global mortality rate of the coronavirus has jumped to 3.4%. Trump’s reason for doing so is that we don’t actually know how many people have it.

“Well, I think the 3.4% is really a false number,” Trump said. “Now, this is just my hunch, but based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this, because a lot of people will have this and it’s very mild. They’ll get better very rapidly. They don’t even see a doctor. They don’t even call a doctor. You never hear about those people.”

The number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. continues to grow as does the death toll, causing California and Washington to declare a state of emergency. As of Wednesday night, there were 150 confirmed cases with 11 deaths, which puts the mortality rate in the U.S. at 7.3%. But the U.S. is also dangerously behind some other countries when it comes to testing for the virus, which lends credence to Trump’s speculation that there could be thousands of undiagnosed cases not only here in the U.S., but also around the world.

“If, you know, we have thousands, or hundreds of thousands of people that get better just by sitting around, or even going to work, some of them go to work, but they get better,” Trump said. “And then when you do have a death…you know, all of a sudden it seems like 3 or 4%.”

And, as he’s done all along, Trump continued to downplay the seriousness of the virus, along with the report from the World Health Organization.

“So I think that number is very high,” Trump said. “Personally, I’d say the number is way under 1%.”

vid at source

SOURCE


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 Post subject: Re: Coronavirus
PostPosted: 03/05/20 9:03 am • # 44 
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Virus has mutated into two strains
One subtype 'more aggressive and contagious', say China researchers, who listed 149 mutations


https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/virus-has ... o-strains/


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PostPosted: 03/05/20 5:36 pm • # 45 
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Interesting opinion piece

Coronavirus Is What You Get When You Ignore Science
Scientists are all we have left. Pray for them.

Farhad Manjoo

Let us pray, now, for science. Pray for empiricism and for epidemiology and for vaccines. Pray for peer review and controlled double-blinds. For flu shots, herd immunity and washing your hands. Pray for reason, rigor and expertise. Pray for the precautionary principle. Pray for the N.I.H. and the C.D.C. Pray for the W.H.O.

And pray not just for science, but for scientists, too, as well as their colleagues in the application of science — the tireless health care workers, the whistle-blowing first responders, the rumpled, righteous public servants whose long-ignored warnings we will learn about only when the 12-part coronavirus docu-disaster series drops on Netflix. Wish them all well in the fights ahead. Their weapons, the weapons of science, are all we have left — perhaps the only true weapons our kind has ever marshaled against encroaching oblivion.

It may sound paradoxical to plead for divine sanction of scientific pursuit. But these are dicey times for science and for scientists, and they need all the help they can get. As the coronavirus spreads, it is exposing the fraying seams of our overextended world. In societies as different as China and the United States, those seams are starting to look similar. The failures to contain the outbreak and to understand the scale and scope of its threat stem from an underinvestment in and an under-appreciation of basic science.

Sure, this is not exactly breaking news; decades of global environmental heedlessness paint a grim picture of modernity’s responsiveness to scientific foreboding.

But this novel coronavirus illustrates the problem more acutely. If it doesn’t kill us it should at least shake us out of the delusion that we can keep ignoring the science and scientists who are warning about the long-term dangers to our way of life. Religious texts say that societies face destruction when they forget God. The coronavirus, like the accelerating climate-related disaster, shows what we face when we decide to blind ourselves to science.

This is what happens when ...

MORE>


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PostPosted: 03/05/20 6:52 pm • # 46 
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An full blown epidemic… what an opportunity to postpone an election indefinitely. All it takes is a bit of a nudge to cause a panic.


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 Post subject: Re: Coronavirus
PostPosted: 03/06/20 5:22 am • # 47 
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Didn't take long for the hucksters to move in ...

N.Y. attorney general to televangelist Jim Bakker: Stop peddling unproven coronavirus cures


The Rev. Jim Bakker, televangelist and salesman, has long promoted “Silver Solution” — a scientifically dubious medication made from the precious metal — to cure all sorts of ailments.

On Feb. 12, just as the novel coronavirus was starting to make worldwide headlines, Bakker asked a guest on his TV show whether the silver tonic he sells on his website just might cure this new illness as well.

“It hasn’t been tested on this strain of the coronavirus, but it’s been tested on other strains of the coronavirus, and has been able to ...

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 Post subject: Re: Coronavirus
PostPosted: 03/06/20 8:28 am • # 48 
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shiftless2 wrote:
Didn't take long for the hucksters to move in ...

N.Y. attorney general to televangelist Jim Bakker: Stop peddling unproven coronavirus cures


The Rev. Jim Bakker, televangelist and salesman, has long promoted “Silver Solution” — a scientifically dubious medication made from the precious metal — to cure all sorts of ailments.

On Feb. 12, just as the novel coronavirus was starting to make worldwide headlines, Bakker asked a guest on his TV show whether the silver tonic he sells on his website just might cure this new illness as well.

“It hasn’t been tested on this strain of the coronavirus, but it’s been tested on other strains of the coronavirus, and has been able to ...

MORE>


Let's assume the virus "killed". Was the patient killed as well? They didn't say. ;)


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 Post subject: Re: Coronavirus
PostPosted: 03/06/20 2:27 pm • # 49 
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Fun Fact: The corona virus doesn't exist. That's the new line being spouted by Grabem supporters. It's all just a Democrat hoax.


https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/202 ... -politics/


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 Post subject: Re: Coronavirus
PostPosted: 03/06/20 8:24 pm • # 50 
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From the World Health Organization

Q&A on coronaviruses (COVID-19)


https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detai ... onaviruses


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